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NEW QUESTION: 1
Nigel Holmes, CFA, is an investment manager for a small money management firm in London. All of Holmes' clients are citizens of the U.K. Holmes urges all of his clients to maintain internationally diversified portfolios. In his efforts to find undervalued securities, he is currently analyzing a Canadian company called Slapshot, Inc. Slapshot produces hockey equipment at its Canadian manufacturing facilities. About 85% of Slapshot's sales are to the U.S. market, and the remainder are domestic (i.e., in Canada). Sales have been growing at 12% per year. Last year's sales were C$68,000,000. Holmes has gathered the following market information (inflation is perfectly predictable):
* £/$ spot exchange rate = 0.8
* £/C$ spot exchange rate = 0.4
* U.K. risk-free rate = 6%
* U.K. expected inflation rate = 4%
* Canadian risk-free rate = 9%
* Canadian expected inflation rate = 7%
* U.S. risk-free rate = 4%
* U.S. expected inflation = 2%
Holmes uses the international CAPM (ICAPM) to value international investments. For Slapshot, Holmes believes that the stock's returns are sensitive to the £/C$ exchange rate. In order to apply the model, he estimates the following parameters using the £ as the base currency:
* World market risk premium = 6%
* Sensitivity of Slapshot to the world market = 1.2
* Sensitivity of Slapshot to changes in the £/C$ exchange rate = 1.4
* Holmes' expectation for the depreciation of the C$ against the £ = 2%
* The ratio of the price of the U.K. consumption basket to the Canadian consumption basket is 0.3.
Holmes adds Slapshot stock to several client portfolios at a purchase price of C$ 100. One year later, the stock is trading at C$ 122. There were no dividend payments during the year.
If the real exchange rate at the end of the year was 1.41, the GBP (£) return on Slapshot for Holmes' clients is closest to:
The end-of-period real rate is 1.41. Since inflation is perfectly predictable, we can use the real exchange rate formula to solve for the end-of-period spot rate (i.e., the end-of-period nominal rate). The real rate (X) is calculated as X = S ( where S is stated in GBP per CAD. The end-of-period (inflation adjusted), consumption basket price ratio is 1.07 / 0.312 = 3.4295 ( = 1 x 1.07 = 1.07; - 0.3 x 1-04 = 0.312).
Substituting into the real exchange rate equation and solving for S we get:
1.41 =S (3.4295)S = 0.41114
Now we know that the end-of-period nominal exchange rate is 0.4111 (the £ depreciated when we expected it to appreciate). The CAD appreciation is ( - ) / = (0.41114-0.4) / 0.4 = 0.02785 or 2.785%. Now we know both the CAD return on the stock, 22% [= ( - ) / = (122 - 100) / 100] and the CAD appreciation of
2.785%. Therefore, the GBP return must be 24.79% (CAD return plus CAD appreciation). (Study Session
18, LOS 66.f)
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